DARAJA Sudan Emergency Forecasting and Early Warning Service

A remote weather, climate, and early warning information service, co-led by DARAJA partners, Resurgence, and the Sudan Urban Development Think Tank (SUDTT), is designed specifically for Sudanese communities and humanitarian actors. This initiative aims to enhance and support existing humanitarian and conflict information efforts, providing vital data that helps mitigate the impact of climate-related events and strengthens local and regional responses.

Our Objectives

The project was implemented between November 2022 and November 2023 under the International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property (ICCROM)’s capacity development initiative, Net Zero: Heritage for Climate Action. It was one of five field projects showcasing transformative actions integrating heritage conservation, climate action, and community resilience. The project consortium was led by the Sudan Urban Development Think Tank, in collaboration with the Faculty of Architecture at the University of Khartoum and Studio Urban.

The original field-project idea involved documenting and recording Al-Taya Practice of Tuti Isalnd and had also envisioned activities in the field to strengthen the Tayas and to identify and develop physical measures to reduce the impacts of future floods and other climate-related impacts, as well as to carry out further climate change risk assessments and projections to increase climate-related data. Unfortunately, the armed conflict that broke out in Sudan in April 2023 forced the team to reconsider the project plan, objective, and strategy. Project design, approach, and methodology had to be reviewed and rethought in view of the new situation. Aspects such as insecurity, lack of basic resources, disruption of livelihoods, forced displacement, loss of life, and deliberate destruction of infrastructure, temporarily moved aside the climate concerns. At the same time, Our team members, either based in the country or abroad, had to deal with the tragedy at a personal level.

The redesigned field-project was titled HEART – Heritage Empowered Action for Resilience in Tuti-Island: Strengthening heritage-based and community-led climate resilience during conflict through joint action. The project plan shifted towards a community-focused strategy, aiming to first understand how the current situation on the ground was evolving, and particularly how it was affecting the local community, as well as the Taya system. This was specifically concerning in terms of capacity to respond to the upcoming flood season.

The DARAJA* Sudan Emergency Forecasting and Early Warning Service addresses the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards. These hazards, combined with the ongoing armed conflict, persistent disease outbreaks, and economic challenges, are leading to a significant reduction in the resilience of communities and an escalation in humanitarian needs.

DARAJA, which means ‘Bridge’ in Swahili and ‘Degree’ in Arabic, will employ its award-winning co-production approaches to tackle these challenges. It aims to create a humanitarian weather and early warning information ‘bridge’ for Sudanese communities and humanitarian responders, directly linking forecast providers to users.

The emergency weather information service is dedicated to producing and disseminating weather forecasts, warnings, and advice for humanitarian hotspots and operational areas in Sudan. Available in both English and Arabic, this service will directly support logistics planning and field operations for humanitarian responders and aid organizations. It also targets affected population groups, including residents in conflict-affected areas and displaced individuals, providing weather information to guide their decision-making and improve their resilience.

Our Coverage

The emergency weather information service will provide national overview forecasts as well as location-specific forecasts and warnings for key areas such as Khartoum, El Fasher (Northern Darfur), Nyala (Southern Darfur), and El Obeid (Southern Kordofan). In addition, it will offer location-based forecasts and warnings for any other humanitarian hotspots that may become significant for both local communities and humanitarian aid agencies as the situation evolves.

Our Target Users

  • At-risk communities residing in conflict-affected areas, particularly in regions where seasonal rains and flash floods pose significant risks. 

  • The humanitarian responders that are providing assistance, including UN agencies and INGOs.

Our Services

  • National Overview Forecasts and Location-Specific Forecasts: We provide daily and weekly forecasts for urban and suburban areas.

  • Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecasts: These forecasts support planting and harvesting decisions, helping agricultural communities make informed choices.

  • Flood Warnings: Our flood warnings assist with critical decisions related to evacuations, food and medical supplies, and other transport needs.

  • Heat Warnings: These warnings guide decisions related to health and the safe storage of medicine.

The information content and wording of the advice messages will be agreed jointly and updated daily by a committee of experts, which will include meteorologists and hydrologists, humanitarian experts from the DARAJA partners, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Africa Regional Headquarters in Nairobi—coordinating the Red Cross/Red Crescent Sudan response—and other relevant stakeholders in the international humanitarian community who have first-hand knowledge of local conditions.

The forecasts, warnings, and advice messages are presented in clear, jargon-free language and accompanied by weather icons and easy-to-interpret maps. This user-friendly format facilitates understanding for all recipients. The advice messages contain practical and actionable guidance specifically designed for residents and displaced individuals in conflict-affected regions.

The information will be disseminated to vulnerable communities by all trusted channels of communication available at the time. These will include local and international radio and TV stations, the communication networks of the Sudan Red Cross and other aid agencies on the ground, and via social media and internet-based messaging applications, where access to the internet exists.

Our Forecast Providers

The forecasts will be produced by an international and regional team of meteorologists, with forecasters from the Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA) embedded within the team. These SMA forecasters will either be located in Nairobi, Cairo, or operating from Sudan, supported by a remote, multi-skilled panel. This panel will consist of weather forecasters, humanitarian response and information experts, medical and public health specialists, logistics specialists, and agricultural experts. The panel will be coordinated by a team leader based in Nairobi and will work closely with international humanitarian organizations, national coordination mechanisms, and key institutions at the national level as they begin operations.

As the government-run SMA resumes functioning, the emergency weather information service will aim to increase the involvement of SMA staff in the creation and dissemination of forecasts and warnings. The ultimate goal is to progressively hand full control of the forecasting and warning process back to the SMA as its capacity strengthens.

Iterative Implementation

The service will be implemented iteratively, seeking feedback on the accuracy of its forecasts and warnings, as well as the usefulness of its associated messages, from the Red Cross/Red Crescent movement and other partner aid agencies operating on the ground. Over time, the service will aim to expand the number and variety of community-based networks through which it disseminates weather information and receives feedback from end users in vulnerable population groups. This feedback will be used to refine both the information provided and the way it is communicated.

After six months of operation, an evaluation will be conducted to assess the reach and impact of the information delivered. This study will examine the effect of the weather information on both aid agency operations and the behavior of vulnerable communities who received it. This evaluation may serve as an endline assessment if the country returns to stable governance by the end of 2023.

Project Duration

The initial project duration is 18 months. Even if a political settlement to the current conflict is reached before that time, the Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA) will have experienced considerable damage and disruption to its former operational capacity. Restoring basic infrastructure, including water and electricity supplies and telecommunications, will take time. Additionally, it may take several months or even years for displaced individuals to return home safely.

Proposed Activities

  • Stakeholder Consultation: Engage with climate service providers, donors, and users, including the humanitarian community, to gather insights and foster collaboration.
  • Climate Service Stabilization Plan: Develop a detailed plan in partnership with the Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA) to stabilize climate services.
  • Remote Forecast and Early Warning Production Team: Establish a team that includes experts in weather forecasting, humanitarian response, medical and public health information, logistics, and agriculture.
  • Sudanese-Arabic Production Team: Create a production team focused on developing impact statements and advice in Sudanese Arabic.
  • Early Action Protocols: Develop protocols with scenarios for major hazards in Sudan to ensure that early warnings translate into early or anticipatory actions for target groups.
  • Co-design for Target Users: Collaborate with target users to make forecasts understandable and more relevant to local communities, providing clear advice on necessary actions.
  • Guidelines for Climate Variability: Produce guidelines and advice to address climate variability and weather forecasts, linking information to actionable steps in the form of flash messages.
  • Weather Forecast Production: Provide weather forecasts in both daily and weekly formats for urban and suburban areas.
  • Two-Way Communication: Establish effective and trusted channels for two-way communication to engage communities and facilitate information exchange.